Financial Planning, Math or Art?

January 28, 2019

Happy New Year and here’s to wishing that 2019 brings you peace, confidence & clarity!

The stock market was certainly anything but peaceful in 2018.  In fact, we have experienced the worst market year in nearly a decade.  The last week of December reported sharp drops followed by record gains in a single day.

Did you know there have only been eight times in history where the market as swung 1000 points in a single day?  Did you also know that five out of the eight times occurred during 2018?  It was a volatile market to say the least! (2019, January 1)

According to Formula Folios, “the Recession Probability Index (RPI) has a current reading of 28.30, forecasting further economic growth and not warning of a recession at this time. The Bull/Bear indicator is currently 100% bearish, meaning the indicator shows there is a slightly higher than average likelihood of stock market decreases in the near term (within the next 18 months).” (2019, January 28)

So the question is, what should investors do?  How should they react to this uncertainty and volatility?   Sometimes, it is easier to respond with what not to do.

Financial planning should be considered mathematical.  Art uses emotion and emotional reactions in retirement planning can prove to be detrimental to a portfolio and a retirement plan.  As investors, we typically rely on historical data and statistical calculations when analyzing or reviewing a retirement plan.  As we always say, “it’s not what you make, but what you keep that’s important.”

It is more crucial than ever to see an independent third party fiduciary to review your retirement plan and assess your risk tolerance and be sure your retirement plan is prepared for negative gain years.  As we enter into this bear market, it is important to note that your risk tolerance may have shifted and no longer be what it was 2-3 years ago.  This is especially crucial for investors nearing or recently transitioning into retirement.

In order to help our clients prepare for retirement, we offer a Results in Advance Retirement Master Plan which will consist of reviewing your retirement goals, completing a Riskalyze assessment and determining whether the reality of your current retirement plan matches your retirement goals.

We encourage everyone to step into 2019 with a clear financial path and a written financial plan.  Be confident that your retirement plan is prepared for the down years and gain added sleep insurance by knowing your retirement plan is aligned with your retirement dreams.

Happy New Year from all of us here at Campbell & Company and may 2019 be filled with what matters most to you!

Monica L Haberlin

Managing Partner, Trinity, FL

8221 State Road 54

Trinity, FL 34655

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